Joho: An asset or liability to Ruto 2027 re-election bid at the Coast?

Cabinet Secretary Hassan Joho has sustained a campaign blitz for President William Ruto at the Coast amid debate if he is an asset or a liability to the head of state’s 2027 re-election bid.

Critics of the former Mombasa governor claim he has lost his mojo, adding that the two million voters at the Coast followed him for years because he represented the spirit of resistance.

Pwani University Don, Prof Hassan Mwakimako, argues that Joho, like other legacy politicians, is facing general apathy from the public because of his poor performance as the governor.

“Joho would love to continue to be in government. At the moment, there is no probability of new kingpins in Coast. It will be the same old faces like Joho who have lost power,” said Mwakimako.

However, lawyer and political analyst Abubakar Yusuf opines that Joho, like Raila, thrives in crises and that the CS still enjoys a massive following on the Coast.

“You cannot write off Joho in Coast politics yet. He is charismatic and has financial muscle and determination to remain in government. He will be an asset for Ruto or Raila,” he said.

Mwakimako and Yusuf agree that Joho’s rise in the Kenya Kwanza politics is bound to ignite personality clashes with the coast political circle, especially within Ruto’s camp.

Nyali MP Mohamed Ali appears to be drifting from the UDA Coast leadership. He blames Joho and UDA Secretary General Hassan Omar for elbowing out the party’s old members.

Meanwhile, Senate Speaker Amason Kingi is championing his Pamoja Africa Alliance (PAA) on the coast and stayed away from UDA or government functions presided over by Joho.

“There will be a huge rift in ODM at the Coast if Raila, Joho, or both support Ruto in 2027. This will benefit fringe parties in the Coast or push leaders to stand independently,” said Mwakimako.

Mr Yusuf said Senate Speaker Amason Kingi would also try to fight for his space against Joho, but still, he would do so using his party and not Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA) party.

He said that if Kilifi Governor Gideon Mung’aro joins Joho in campaigning for Ruto, then Kingi must abandon Pamoja African Alliance (PAA) and join UDA to remain politically relevant.

“Kingi with his PAA will not have a chance against Joho, who is enjoying the backing of state machinery,” said Yusuf, a former secretary general of the Coast-based Shirikisho Party of Kenya.

Recently, Kingi gave the government empowerment programs in Coast a wide berth, while Joho acted as the host, in a clear sign of his place in the UDA political hierarchy in the region.

But the debate on Joho's significance in Ruto’s reelection appears to be powered by persisting questions about Raila Odinga’s dismal performance in the 2022 polls in Mombasa and the Coast.

Some ODM leaders say the low turnout of voters in Coast, bungled ODM nominations, Joho’s refusal to vie for the Mombasa senate seat, and uncoordinated campaign cost Raila the presidency.

In Mombasa, ODM did not conduct nominations, and all ODM Party tickets were dished out to people close to Joho, which was also blamed for the low voter turnout.

Data from the IEBC shows that Raila got 160,984 (58%) votes in Mombasa and Ruto got 113,668 (41.4%) votes. Mombasa had 641,913 votes, meaning that 367,261 voters did not vote.

Ruto won the presidency by a margin of 200,000 votes in the national tally. Mombasa, perceived to be Raila’s political bastion, was expected to tilt the presidential polls to his favour. 

In comparison, Raila got 65.2 percent of the votes in Mombasa in the 2017 polls, while Uhuru Kenyatta had 33.1 percent. Mwakimako says this shows that Joho's influence was waning.

Mr Oginga Randiki, Raila’s advisor on Coast affairs, says that the confusion created by Joho's campaign for Ruto will affect the rankings of ODM and Ruto in the Coast region. 

“Joho is all in on the broad-based government, while Raila is saying this broad-based government ends in 2027. It is a confusion that will disenfranchise our members further," said Mr. Randiki.

Just like in 2022, Joho has dismissed Coast leaders asking him to vie for the Senate seat to guarantee a high voter turnout. Critics say Joho was committing the same mistake as in 2022.

“The other day, Abubakar Joho, alias Abu was at State House with the President. This casts doubt in the minds of our members if Joho is in it for the people or selfish gains,” said Randiki.