Shaky centre: Raila at crossroads as uncertainties over future grow

A political empire facing deepening cracks, a restless support base, internal feuds, a fizzling energy about his future presidential prospects, and a defiant Gen Z threatening to change the status quo has rattled ODM leader Raila Odinga as he juggles carefully his political steps.

The political strongman is facing a moment of truth with strong implications for his political future as he remains steadfast in his support for President William Ruto.

This happens as his thinktanks and government operatives continue to devise strategies to implement his proposal for the formation of a conclave to diffuse tensions the Kenya Kwanza administration is facing at the hands of the restless youth.

And as he continues with his quest to help President Ruto restore calm in the country and ward off a series of ripples threatening to bring his administration to its knees, the ODM leader is facing several dilemmas and political flames threatening his own decades-old power.

In the ODM party, party insiders believe persistent internal wrangles, a crackdown on younger leaders, intense competition from their opponents, the political union with Ruto, as well as fewer party activities, have pushed the party to a crossroads.

For the first time in several years, the party leadership has issued conflicting statements in regards to the relationship with Kenya Kwanza, even as new entrants and opponents begin to eat into their support bases. Party activities have also become fewer and farther between.

In Western, Raila is facing a herculean task to maintain the support he has enjoyed in the past three General Elections from the area, as the list of critics continues to grow.

This has been escalated by the entry of Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya, who is leading an effort to transform the region’s politics, in a move that targets both Raila’s ODM, Ruto’s UDA, National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetangula’s Ford Kenya, among others.

“There are concerns because even some party officials are also concerned about the party’s direction in the region. Senior officials have been criticizing some of the party’s moves in Western,” said a senior ODM official.

Similarly, in the Gusii region, the ODM leader is also facing a tough test to reclaim the support he has enjoyed for several years after the entry of former Interior CS Fred Matiang'i muddied political waters for him. 

The realignments that have seen his allies, such as Senator Richard Onyonka, align with the new opposition have left Raila's party exposed. Raila is yet to visit the region since he was heckled at Gusii Stadium in March.

Yesterday, the ODM chief began a series of meetings with delegates in Kakamega as he seeks to quell growing tensions in the party and revamp his party, and reclaim a glory that is facing turbulent times.

A day before he flew to Kakamega, grassroots party officials criticized the meeting over claims they had been sidelined in the preparations.

Khwisero MP Christopher Aseka faulted ODM leadership for sidelining the Western region when sharing national resources and developments.

"We do not want a scenario where we are being used during the election, but after the polls, some of the ODM MPs and stronghold in Kakamega and Western at large are sidelined in terms of development and sharing of resources," said Aseka.

The Sunday Standard has established that party stalwarts are crafting new strategies to revamp the party and avert fallouts from simmering sibling rivalries and discontent over the party's association with Kenya Kwanza.

As part of the strategy, the party intends to undertake several meetings across the country with delegates as the party leader moves to reassure his detractors and his support base that he is still the uncontested and most powerful man in the country’s political sphere, and that the party's political ideals are still intact.

"We are still on course. The narrative that the party is losing its strength is being pushed by those keen to see ODM outside government. All parties have problems but ODM is still strong and relevant," said an ODM MP.

Tough questions, however, remain about how the ODM leader will tackle the ambitions of a younger generation of political leaders in his party, salivating to take a few steps further in the party.

The group of young turks is keen to climb up the leadership ladder and position themselves to the nerves of the party have come out in the open and are fighting for their space, albeit with almost no support from the party stalwarts.

So vocal have been some of the leaders within ODM circles that the statements that were made by the Secretary General Edwin Sifuna poking holes in the party’s relationship with Ruto did not surprise many.

Similarly, Embakasi East MP Babu Owino, who has gubernatorial ambitions for Nairobi, is also gaining immense traction in the party’s major support bases.

In Nyanza, for instance, the youthful politician whose messaging and choice of words appear to be appealing to the younger generation of supporters is gaining traction as a potential heir-apparent.

In recent weeks, residents have demanded that he speak at burials where his presence overpowered that of his peers and other party veterans.

Observers believe his rise in the party is ruffling the political feathers of other ODM leaders who are uncomfortable with his abrasive style of politics, which they perceive as undermining their political deal with Ruto.

Strategic & Political Communications, and Leadership Communications Consultant, Barack Muluka opines that ODM leader Raila Odinga is already damaged, and it will take a miracle to regain his clout that shook the country's political spine to the core.

"He is now associated with President William Ruto's government's misrule and extra-judicial killings, shoot-to-kill edicts, and all that," Dr. Muluka says.

He thinks that even if Raila leaves President Ruto, he has  now lost the trust of those who believed in him before.

Muluka opines that Raila's stay with President Ruto so far has cast him as a counter-revolutionary, who has betrayed Kényan youth who’ve been killed by the Kenya Kwanza government.

"Only the very diehard and mercenaries can be counted upon to stay with him. They are not many," he says.

He believes the only viable option for the ODM leader is to stick with Ruto to the end.

Political analyst Mark Bichachi opines that Raila is an enigma.

"This is the biggest thing that we must all put in mind when discussing him. For example, he is ODM and ODM is him. Yet he remains tolerating two ODM in the public sphere," Mr. Bichachi says.

The political analyst believes that Raila is in charge of the destiny he desires, and pressure will not necessarily change his mind.

"It all depends on what he is able to see as an opportunity," Bichachi states.

Constitutional lawyer Clifford Obiero opines that ODM leader Raila Odinga now stands at a pivotal moment in his political journey.

He says Raila's recent engagements with President Ruto’s government have sparked debate within ODM and among supporters, with many questioning whether his cooperation is weakening the party’s voice as the primary opposition.

However, he opines that this is a familiar dilemma for Raila.

"The 2018 'Handshake' with President Uhuru Kenyatta brought stability but also dampened ODM’s opposition vigour, while his role as Prime Minister in the 2008 power-sharing arrangement similarly tested party unity," lawyer Obiero says.

He adds, "Today, ODM grassroots and key officials are calling for a clearer return to a robust opposition stance, especially as economic pressures and governance concerns grow".

According to lawyer Obiero, Raila faces a strategic choice, on whether to continue collaborating with the government, risking further erosion of ODM’s core identity, or reclaim the mantle of opposition, revitalizing the party’s base and holding the government to account.

He says Kenya’s political history shows the necessity of a strong opposition to keep leaders in check.

His allies in ODM, however, are cheering him on. They believe his deal with Ruto has given his major support bases a chance at development, while also reducing the number of deaths and destruction to property occasioned by protests.

They are quick to bash anyone they see as against their union with Kenya Kwanza and have been at the forefront in defending President Ruto's policies.

Led by party chairperson Gladys Wanga, the ODM stalwarts believe critics within the party are unhappy with the calm and development projects in Nyanza.

Uriri MP Mark Nyamita says the best for ODM leader Raila, the party, and the Nyanza region is to be in government.

"Our region has for a long time suffered discrimination. This government has agreed to an equitable approach to the development of the nation. We will remain inside," Eng. Nyamita opines.

Migori Senator Eddy Oketch says Raila himself has been crystal clear that he is in and supporting the Kenya Kwanza administration till 2027.

"Just because a few leaders in the party are pursuing existential survival does not mean the position of Raila is challenged," Senator Oketch thinks.

He says ODM is keen on the country's survival than any other form of survival.

"The broad-based unity is for peace, a steady and stable environment for government and businesses till 2027," Oketch states.

Political researcher Dr Charles Nyambuga believes the ODM leader is facing immense pressure from non-Luo ODM bases.

He says that when they get to 2027, we will take direction from there.

Additional reporting by Anne Atieno