Uhuru shadow looms large over 2027 General Election

Retired President Uhuru Kenyatta is undoubtedly one of the most influential political figures in the country today.

After serving two terms in office and leading a political party, Uhuru is clearly poised to play a significant role in the high-stakes 2027 presidential election.

Analysts say the battle lines are already drawn for the fiercely contested race to unseat President William Ruto, and Uhuru may become a key player in this political landscape.

All the country’s top politicians are already positioning themselves for the top seat ahead of the contest. And all of them contend that the former president is unlikely to be a bystander as the country’s political landscape is reconfigured.

The leaders, including President Ruto, impeached deputy president Rigathi Gachagua, former vice president Kalonzo Musyoka, Martha Karua, Eugene Wamalwa, and former Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i, are positioning themselves ahead of the 2027 polls.

ODM party leader Raila Odinga has kept his cards close to his chest as regards to his political course come the 2027 elections.

Dominant force

It is against this background that analysts have been keenly watching the behind-the-scenes role of Uhuru in the country’s unfolding political events.

The opposition team has been working on a formula to field a single presidential candidate to face off with President Ruto.

Whereas some analysts argue that Uhuru will play a pivotal role in shaping the country’s political trajectory ahead of the polls, there are those who say the retired president may not openly come out to engage in partisan politics.

Uhuru has already reclaimed ownership of the Jubilee Party after the Registrar of Political Parties confirmed him as the party leader, his allies Jeremiah Kioni and David Murathe as secretary general and deputy national chairman respectively.

This, according to political analysts, puts the former president at the centre of the high stakes political chess game.

His behind-the-scene political maneuvers and engagement with various political players has been the subject of debates amongst cross-section of Kenyans across the country’s political divide.

Some pundits opine that the Kenyatta family has been at the centre of the country’s politics for over 70 years and it is quite unlikely that it completely disengages itself from the political arena given its enormous investments and political networks.

Gitile Naituli, a professor of management and leadership, thinks that as the race for State House intensifies, the narratives of strategic alliances, regional politics, and generational shifts are emerging, with Uhuru Kenyatta at the centre of it all.

“For Uhuru, the stakes are high as he seeks to cement his legacy and ensure the Kenyatta family remains a dominant force in Kenyan politics. Whether his strategy will succeed remains to be seen, but one thing is clear: the 2027 presidential race will be a defining moment in the country’s history,” Prof Naituli opines.

Naituli, however, believes that Uhuru is likely to adopt a more thoughtful approach this time, especially after his candidate lost to Ruto in 2022.

Last week, Uhuru attended an event at Ngong Racecourse where excited mobs cheered him with his clips going viral across various social media platforms.

A number of events have in the recent past helped in arousing curiosity over Uhuru’s role in the country’s evolving political landscape, top amongst them being his meeting with President Ruto late last year.

Following the meeting, President Ruto appointed into his Cabinet three of the former president’s allies: Lee Kinyanjui, William Kabogo, and Mutahi Kagwe.

The appointments made barely five months after the impeachment of the former DP, sent shock waves into Gachagua’s camp which perceived the move as an act of betrayal by his Mt Kenya kinsmen.

Claims by ODM party leader Raila Odinga that he reached out to President Ruto for a political pact following prompting by Uhuru after the Generation Z protests that threatened to cripple the government also sent the tongues wagging.

Raila, who signed a Memorandum of Understanding with the president in what has been described as a broad-based government, has repeatedly made the claims arguing that the former president expressed fears that the country was headed into the abyss.

Kioni also caused a stir in the political arena when he declared that the party headed by Uhuru would be fielding former Interior CS Fred Matiang’i as its presidential flag bearer.

Matiang’i served as the Cabinet Secretary for Interior in Uhuru’s administration, where he was assigned the responsibility of coordinating inter-ministerial functions after the former president fell out with President Ruto, who was then his deputy.

Uhuru’s influence is expected to play a crucial role in swaying the Mt Kenya business elites in backing his choice of a candidate.

Traditionally, these key players are influential in shaping the Central Kenya’s political choice.

The former president was also said to have played a role in the talks between the Kikuyu and Kamba elders early this year.

The talks aimed at fostering friendship between the two communities.

In the view of the foregoing, opinion is divided amongst political observers over Uhuru’s political path going forward and the country’s fast-changing political scenario.

Political analyst Andrew Nyabuto says it is unlikely that the former president would be detached from the country’s politics considering the massive business and commercial investment made by the Kenyatta family in the county.

“Uhuru is still the undisputed leader of the Kikuyu considering that he was yet to hand over the community leadership baton (commonly referred to as muthigi) and he is, for this reason, providing political direction to his people,” Nyabuto said.

The analyst says majority of the residents and leaders from the populous Mt Kenya region have publicly declared that they regret failing to heed Uhuru’s warning to them not to elect President Ruto to office.

“With the wisdom of hind sight, it is apparent that Mt Kenya region is keenly watching Mr Kenyatta’s political manoeuvres as the country sail through the stormy waters,” Nyabuto opined.

David Manyara, a former MP who has been Uhuru’s political ally for a long time, says the former president cannot be ignored in any political matrix.

“During the past general election, the residents of Mt Kenya were manipulated and lied to to rebel against Uhuru but the situation has since changed and everybody is in agreement that the former president was right in his advice to the community,” Manyara stated.

Manyara said a section of leaders in Mt Kenya region previously allied to President Ruto, including Gachagua, have publicly offered their apology to Uhuru for failing to heed his advice not to vote for him.

“With this political reality, Mt Kenya regions are waiting for Uhuru to make a political statement and declare his stand when elections are called,” Manyara said.

He observed that the former president was concerned about the state of the nation and desires for positive change in socio-economic and political spheres.

“I am certain Uhuru will use his influence amongst sections of Mt Kenya community elders, religious leaders, and business and political leaders to consolidate unity in the area,” Manyara opined.

Former Ndaragwa MP Mwangi Gichuki says Uhuru remains a politician and will continue to have some imprints in key political events in the country.