Why ODM, Raila are part and parcel of Ruto's government

There is a Japanese proverb that says, “If you get on the wrong train, get off at the next station because the longer you wait, the harder and costlier the journey back becomes.”

In an interview, Raila Odinga has disclosed that he will support President William Ruto until 2027. For many Kenyans, this statement evokes the image of a rat that steps off a sinking ship. But what does this move signal for the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) and the broader political landscape?

To interpret Raila’s declaration, we must listen to the views of Edwin Sifuna, the ODM Secretary General who also serves as Nairobi Senator. He also recently confirmed the party’s intention to field a presidential candidate in the 2027 general elections.

While this may seem like an affirmation of ODM’s independence, the timing raises questions. Sifuna contradicted his party leader by arguing that waiting until 2027 to distance himself from what many regard as a deeply unpopular regime may cost the party its moral leverage and public trust. And to that we ask, are they not playing us?

As Stanley Baldwin, former British Prime Minister, once said: “I would rather be an opportunist and float than go to the bottom with my principles around my neck”. ODM seems to have taken this aphorism to heart. But where did ODM’s opportunism end and complicity begin?

Regarding ODM’s recent statements and manoeuvres, I have held the belief that Raila’s anticipated candidacy in 2027 is intended to enable President William Ruto to win a second term. Period.

Further, immediately Raila will declare his presidential candidacy, he will destabilise the unity of the Opposition conclave, comprising Gachagua, Kalonzo, Matiangi, and Co.

Note that ODM is not doing this for the first time, it’s an extension of its long-standing tradition: Forging alliances with the State to gain influence, often through handshake arrangements or other forms of power-sharing, without taking responsibility for government’s failures.

Truth is that while such alliances have offered short-term gains, they have diluted ODM’s legitimacy as a genuine opposition force over time.

ODM also underrates the citizens' ability to see its presence in Ruto’s broad-based government, which emerged in the aftermath of the 2024 Gen Z protests. Kenyans know how ODM-allied politicians were appointed to key government positions.

These included Cabinet secretaries responsible for energy, mining, cooperatives, and treasury portfolios. Their participation marked an undeniable integration into the regime. As such, the failure of this government should be taken as the failure of ODM.

ODM should be held accountable for any failures of the Kenya Kwanza regime. That is why Raila and Sifuna’s attempts to project ODM as an independent entity preparing for a fresh start in 2027 is contradictory. How can a party claim to oppose an administration it’s benefiting from?

The contradiction is glaring, and Kenyans are not as easily swayed as they once were. The electorate has matured, sharpened by social movements, civic engagement, and digital platforms that expose political doublespeak.

If ODM wants to move beyond vague intentions and is serious about challenging Ruto’s leadership in 2027, it should start by disentangling itself from Ruto’s government. This means withdrawing its members from Cabinet roles and abandoning its symbolic alignment with the Kenya Kwanza regime. But I doubt they will do that.

Notwithstanding, the days of manipulating narratives while maintaining hidden alliances are long gone. A new political consciousness is emerging, demanding clarity of purpose and accountability from its leaders.

If ODM delays its departure from Ruto’s regime, the cost won’t be measured only in votes lost; it will be paid in credibility, trust, and the party’s long-term relevance.

Dear ODM, the train is still moving. How long will you remain on board if, at all, your claims that the Kenya Kwanza administration is unpopular are genuine?

Dr Ndonye is the Dean of Kabarak University’s School of Music and Media